Baeza, who has been habitually chasing three-year-old male division leader Sovereignty around the country since May, has been listed as the 2/1 morning line favorite in the 2025 Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Park on Saturday.
The impeccably bred, $1.2 million colt drew post position eight and will face nine others in the nine-furlong, Grade 1 contest.Baeza
This handsome colt is by up and coming sire McKinzie out of perhaps the most valuable mare in the world, Puca. Puca, a 13-year-old daughter of Big Brown, has spawned the 2022 Kentucky Derby winner Mage as well as the 2023 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch.
Owner John Steward raised a few eyebrows last month when he announced he will enter the 2024 Broodmare of the Year in Fasig-Tipton’s November Sale near Lexington, commonly referred to as “The Night of the Stars.” However, Steward, after paying $2.9 million for her, said it would take “north of $5 million” for him to “let her go.”
As far as Baeza goes, he owns just one uninspiring win in seven career starts. It must be noted that in the six defeats, three were against the clear division leader and Horse of the Year candidate, Sovereignty. Two others came at the hands of perhaps the second-best three-year-old in the country, Journalism and one against Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez, who appears to have an enormous future in front of him.
Other horses who merit win considerations include:
This $450,000 son of the hottest sire on the planet, Not This Time, comes off a disappointing effort in the Travers Stakes last month. Many thought this speedster would pose a threat to the aformetioend Sovereignty. Instead, he showed brief speed, shifted into reverse shortly thereafter and was beaten by a colossal margin (20 lengths). That said, if he duplicates either of his previous two races, he could be a menace here.
Any horse Bob Baffert enters in a race for three-year-old’s almost always must be respected, and this talented, yet relatively inexperienced runner is no exception.
After winning his first two starts, this colt, who is also by Not This Time, ran a very good fourth in the Preakness Stakes and an even better third in the Haskell Stakes in starts number three and four.
The bottom line here is, without question, this horse has ability and commands respect here. The problem is that it appears his “wheelhouse” distance is between seven and eight and a half furlongs, with his race being nine furlongs, will it be a touch beyond him?
This gray colt has never been worse than second in five lifetime starts. This son of Nyquist proved his second-place finish at over 15-1 odds in the Preakness was no fluke as he came back and ran his lungs out (second, beaten by just a half length to Journalism) in the Haskell Stakes.
When looking at this colt on Saturday, and having finished in front of him in both the aforementioned races, keep in mind he is two for two against Goal Oriented.
Others who rate a look include:
This Cherie Devaux trainee appears to be sitting on a big race. This $535,000 son of Omaha Beach broke his maiden at Horseshoe Indianapolis, beat a “non-winners of one life” at Churchill Downs and just missed in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga in his last three starts. In each of those three starts, he has recorded Brisnet Speed Figures of 81, 94 and 97, respectively, so he is clearly trending upwards.
Big Truzz is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify and has shown flashes of brilliance in two of his five career starts. In his most recent start, he was much the best while clobbering his foes in the Ellis Park Derby, winning by over seven lengths, stopping the clock in a fleet 1:34.3. This steed scored a towering 107 Brisnet Speed Figure that day as well.
Mo Plex is proving to be quite a good “ROI” as he was purchased for $45,000 two years ago, but has already banked over $775,000. He has also been laudably consistent while hitting the board in eight of nine career starts.
Another speedy colt, he should be your early leader and play “catch me if you can,” and, depending on the pace scenario, that may prove difficult. Tread with caution, though, as the last time he faced Baeza, he was beaten by nine lengths.
David of Athens will be making just his fourth career start in this spot. He must be given credit for his last race as he waltzed home an easy winner and is another who scored a triple digit (102) Brisnet Figure in the process. He’s taking an gigantic step up in class but if he replicates that 102 figure here, he could surprise a few people.
The rest of the field, including Altobelli, who was blown away by $32,000 claiming horses, and Happily Delusional, who is well named for this race, is just one for 11 in his career; both have almost no chance of winning.
1) Baeza- There’s no Sovereignty or Journalism to deal with here. Therefore, he should have no excuses.
2) Goscar– has recorded back-to-back runner-up finishes in his last two races….looks like it will be three in a row now.
3) Goal Oriented– has the talent to land in the winner’s circle, but the distance remains a question mark
**** Sovereignty, the leading 3-year-old in the country and a leading contender for Horse of the Year honors, returned to the work tab Saturday morning in Saratoga, breezing an easy half-mile in :49 seconds over the Oklahoma training track.
Working several paths off the rail by exercise rider Neil Poznansky, Sovereignty went his first quarter in :24.3 seconds, got his final quarter in :24.2 and galloped out five furlongs in 1:02.4. It was Sovereignty’s first work back since he won the Grade 1 Travers by 10 lengths on Aug. 23. Sovereignty is preparing to make his next start in the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 1.
“Neil thought he went well, felt good was moving well,” trainer Bill Mott said. “He did everything as well as could be expected.”
Mott, who hadn’t seen Sovereignty in a week owing to a vacation, was asked how Sovereignty looked to him.
“He looks like he was breathing fire,” Mott said.
Saturday’s move is likely one of five workouts Sovereignty will have in Saratoga before shipping to California where he will likely have his final workout at Del Mar, the site of this year’s Breeders’ Cup.
**** Chancer McPatrick, the multiple grade 1-winning juvenile by McKinzie, will stand stud at Spendthrift Farm in 2026, the farm announced last Saturday.
Chancer McPatrick will make his final start in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar Nov. 1 with a stud fee to be determined following his retirement from racing.
“We are excited about Chancer McPatrick. We’ve had good luck with precocious Grade 1 winners from the first crop of emerging sires—of course, that was the formula with Into Mischief when he came to stud,” said Ned Toffey, Spendthrift general manager. “It takes a pretty special 2-year-old to win on debut at Saratoga, win a race like the Hopeful in the second start, and win another storied race like the Champagne in the third start. Chancer McPatrick is also a tremendous physical, and we believe breeders are really going to like what they see on the end of the shank.”
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