Early on in the 2025-26 offseason, the New York Mets look destined for a full rebuild.
The Mets had just lost Brandon Nimmo in a trade with the Texas Rangers, Edwin Diaz to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles. They kept striking out on big-time free agents, losing out on the Ranger Suarez, Tatsuya Imai, and Munetaka Murakami sweepstakes. New York had made some moves in acquiring Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien for their lineup, alongside Devin Williams as their new closer, but the holes were glaring.
In just the span of a week in January, the Mets have flipped that narrative on its head by going on a full-blown spending and trading binge. It started with signing infielder Bo Bichette, then a trade for centerfielder Luis Robert Jr., then a deal for right-hander Freddy Peralta. What’s better is that they still have several prospects who can perform at the big-league level.
The question is no longer, “How low can the Mets go in 2026?” It’s now, “Are the Mets true World Series contenders?”
No one will be able to replace the value Alonso brought to the Mets. The first baseman’s power bat will be missed, averaging nearly 40 home runs per season and 110 RBIs. It doesn’t help matters that he didn’t miss a game in two years, anchored the lineup since 2019, and never fell under a .315 OBP in any given year.
Polanco is a fine player in a good year, also hovering around the .315 OBP rate through his career. The 31-year-old had 125 hits to 82 strikeouts, one of his best ratios on record since his 2019 campaign. The only thing he truly lacks compared to Alonso is power, both gap and raw, where his highest home run total was 33 in 2021. When he hits well, he’s extremely effective.
One question regarding Polanco is how he adjusts to first base, should he be the opening day starter at that position. Alonso was not a strong fielder at first, but Polanco has not played a single full game at the position in his entire career. This is an entirely new strategy he has to learn, and it might be a painful journey for him and the team.
The other three offensive upgrades outside of Polanco are not only decent additions to their lineup, but were also a necessity. Remember that the team dealt away Jeff McNeil and Nimmo in two deals this year, leaving them with a depleted roster. Semien is a risky move, given that his offensive production hasn’t broken a .700 OPS since 2023. If they can get his 2019 or 2023 form, then the Nimmo trade was worth it.
Bichette is a far different player and a more effective hitter than Semien. After snubbing the Philadelphia Phillies, the Mets signed the former Toronto Blue Jays shortstop to a three-year, $126 million deal to solve their infield dilemma. The move effectively kicks Brett Baty off third base and might make him a utility player moving forward.
The 27-year-old is a fantastic hitter, placing high in whiff and strikeout rates, along with a 49% hard-hit rate. Bichette also has not fallen below an .800 OPS or a .325 OBP outside of his injury-plagued 2024 season. His bat speed is slow, limiting his power potential, but his .300 batting average potential would easily top all other Mets in the lineup. If the team needs contact hitters, Bichette is a perfect fit.
Literally the next day, New York sent a package of prospects, including Luisangel Acuna, to the Chicago White Sox for Robert Jr. Outfield was a major concern for the Mets, given they only had a sturdy option in Juan Soto and had unproven prospects in Carson Benge and Jett Williams. They also went through a carousel with Jose Siri, Cedric Mullins and even Jose Azocar.
Robert Jr. has slumped since his all-star 2023 season, failing to break a .675 OPS in back-to-back years. He’s struggled with laying off pitches and working the count, leading to an ugly 32% chase rate with most of that on offspeed pitches. The hope here is that the Mets can offer him a brand new start to reboot his career. This will either be a big-time win for New York or a forgettable single season.
The Mets had almost no starting pitching in 2025. Kodai Senga was good, but he couldn’t stay healthy; Griffin Canning suffered a torn Achilles in one outing, while Tylor Megill also suffered injuries that derailed his season. David Peterson fell apart in the second half, meaning converted pitcher Clay Holmes was the de facto ace.
That changed on Jan. 21 when New York shipped 30th overall prospect Williams and pitching prospect Brandon Sproat to Milwaukee for coveted pitcher Freddy Peralta. The 29-year-old had been a trade candidate for teams, finally getting dealt after talk swirled since the end of the 2025 season.
The 2025 all-star, who finished fifth in Cy Young voting, is a dominant arm when he’s operating at his potential. Peralta limited hitters to a 34% hard-hit rate and struck out 28% of batters faced, along with a 30% whiff rate. He did struggle with walks, elevated at a 9% clip, and isn’t the best groundball pitcher, with only 38% finding the dirt.
In a more in-depth analysis, none of Peralta’s four pitches held a batting average above .210, with his four-seamer sitting at .209. His value lies in his curveball and slider, which make up almost 40% of his strikeouts. The slider alone induces a 53% whiff rate, showcasing his brilliance with breaking balls.
Peralta is the ace now. With Nolan McLean behind him, Jonah Tong looking for a bounce-back season, and Kodai Senga, New York has a legitimate squad now.
With these additions, the Mets might be the sole team that is in range to win the National League East.
The Philadelphia Phillies are still a threat with Kyle Schwarber returning to the team, but they lost a key piece in Ranger Suarez for their rotation. The Miami Marlins are deconstructing their rotation for pieces of the lineup, and the Washington Nationals are still years away from contention. The NL East is ripe for the taking.
Can they win a World Series? Yes, but it’s difficult.
The one true roadblock for New York is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who continue to buy their way to the postseason. They just got Kyle Tucker on a mega $60 million AAV deal, along with Diaz, and still have Freeman and Ohtani. Barring a severe collapse, the Dodgers remain the favorite to win the World Series. Don’t count the Mets out, though.
The 2026 Mets are shaping up to be a far better team than the 2025 version of this team. The one thing that cannot be accounted for, however, is chemistry inside the clubhouse. Everyone kept reading about how despondent or how stale the air was in there, and we won’t know for sure how it all comes together.
What can be suggested is that David Stearns and Steve Cohen did a respectable job pivoting to cover the losses of Diaz and Alonso. With a trio of prospects incoming on the back end of it as well, they might have given New York fans another reason to break out a new “OMG” rallying cry.
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