The New England Patriots travel to Germany in Week 10 to face the Detroit Lions in a must-win matchup. Following their devastating 45-27 defeat to the Green Bay Packers, the Patriots’ playoff hopes took a hit, but they could recover with a victory this week. The Lions will be a tough opponent, as they earned wins in their last four outings with a point differential of +41. Considering the competition, New England needs to succeed in these two areas to improve their odds of getting back on track.
Patriots’ Passing Offense Must Capitalize On Detroit’s Struggles
Drake Maye and the Patriots’ passing offense were underwhelming last week against the Packers. While Maye recorded 299 yards and three touchdowns, he did so on 55.3% completion with three interceptions. This was his second game with three interceptions and his fourth with a completion percentage under 60 this season. For New England to have success against Detroit, they need Maye to bounce back like he did earlier this year.
Maye’s first three weeks of the season didn’t go as expected. He threw for 585 yards with one touchdown and six interceptions, while averaging a 49.9 QBR through this span. Given his underperformance, he faced much criticism but rose under pressure. He improved his play by totaling 1,398 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and two interceptions with an 84.5 QBR over the next five games. The Patriots need him to return to this level of play, as their opponent could be vulnerable to an efficient passing offense.
The Lions have struggled to defend the passing attack this season. Their 2,087 passing yards allowed is the second-most in the league, and they have given up the third-most passing touchdowns with 18. Through Detroit’s eight games, they allow the most air yards and passing yards per game, offering their opponents downfield opportunities. Although this is a multi-faceted issue, their secondary’s inability to cover receiving targets consistently is a large contributor to this problem.
Detroit’s cornerbacks have given up significant production this season. Opposing quarterbacks have had success targeting Roger McCreary, as his 411 yards allowed is the sixth-most in the league, with a 101.7 passer rating when targeted. Rock Ya-Sin has allowed fewer yards than McCreary, with only 129 total, but QBs have a 73.9% completion rate and a 101.5 passer rating when targeting him. Since the Lions’ CBs have struggled this year, Maye and the Patriots’ wide receivers could take advantage of this matchup.
New England’s leading WR, DeMario Douglas, has stepped up when Romeo Doubs and A.J. Brown were sidelined with injury. He recorded 287 yards on 18 receptions with two touchdowns over the last four weeks. With Brown potentially returning to action this week, he could open up some receiving opportunities, as defenses tend to prioritize him. If Maye can protect the ball, the Patriots could establish an efficient passing offense against a troubled secondary.
New England’s Secondary Needs To Deliver Against Lion’s Receivers
Similar to the offense, Christian Gonzalez and the Patriots’ secondary were disappointing last week. Gonzalez had one of the worst performances of his career against Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, allowing 188 yards, nine receptions, and a touchdown. The secondary struggled altogether, as Jordan Love finished with 372 yards on 23-of-29 passing with three touchdowns. For New England’s defense to have success in Week 10, their coverage has to improve, and that starts with Gonzalez.
Before Week 9, Gonzalez was playing at a top level. He only allowed 200 yards with 20 receptions in his previous six games this season. He has shown the ability to take the opponent’s best WR out of the game by holding DK Metcalf to 27 yards and Garrett Wilson to 44 yards in their matchups. The Patriots need Gonzalez to return to his usual form to help stabilize an injured secondary.
New England’s defense has given up the second-most passing yards this season with 2,087, as they’ve had issues containing WRs. They have allowed 1,577 yards to WRs with 12 receiving touchdowns, the most in the league. The secondary will also be without Carlton Davis III, which means they will have to elevate another player to the CB2 role. Charles Woods could be the most likely candidate, as he filled this role before, recording four pass deflections and limiting QBs to 61.5% completion when targeting him. The Patriots will need him to step up to face off against Detroit’s explosive WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams create a dynamic duo for the Lions, combining for 1,125 yards, 89 receptions, and 10 touchdowns this season. They help Detroit establish a healthy passing offense, as St. Brown functions as their chain mover and Williams as their deep threat. Their QB, Jared Goff, has also been efficient at getting them the ball by completing 67.8% of his passing attempts with only two interceptions. The Patriots must interrupt Goff’s timing with his receivers to prevent them from controlling the game.
New England cannot afford another poor defensive performance this week. The secondary needs to contain St. Brown and Williams while making plays on the ball to disrupt passes and create turnovers. The Patriots should look to utilize man coverage more often to keep the Lions’ WRs from finding space, with a safety providing over-the-top protection. If Gonzalez and the secondary can rally together, they can limit the passing attack and slow down Detroit’s offense.
End Of My Patriots Rant
The Patriots’ matchup with the Lions puts another tough team in their path, but they could improve their odds of winning with these two keys. Maye and the offense have to bounce back by limiting turnovers to establish an efficient passing offense. Then, Gonzalez and the rest of the secondary need to disrupt Detroit’s passing attack and prevent them from controlling the game. If New England can manage to accomplish both, they could keep their playoff hopes alive by improving to 6-4.
