In Week 7, the New England Patriots head to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears. This Patriots vs. Bears matchup will be much different from when these two teams last faced off in 2024, as they are both under new leadership. Although Chicago presents a difficult challenge, New England’s injuries make production in two key areas especially important. If Mike Vrabel’s team can execute in both, they could see themselves leaving the Midwest with a victory.
Drake Maye and the Patriots’ passing offense have made significant strides in recent weeks. After struggling early in the season, Maye has improved both his efficiency and production. Through the last three weeks, he has thrown for 872 yards with a 64.1% completion rate and 10 passing touchdowns. He has also taken better care of the ball by throwing only one interception in that span.
Though Maye’s improvement helped the passing game, the injuries around him could impact the unit against the Bears. Last week, Romeo Doubs went down with a shoulder injury and was placed on IR. In that game, New England saw A.J. Brown return to action, but his performance was underwhelming. He totaled 27 yards with 3 receptions on 10 targets, as he and Maye struggled to connect.
In Week 6, Maye and Brown seemed to lack chemistry, which was expected as Brown missed four games with an ankle injury. Though the Patriots managed to defeat the New York Jets despite this miscommunication, they need this duo to establish chemistry against Chicago. The Bears’ secondary has offered opposing offenses downfield opportunities that Maye and Brown have to take advantage of.
Throughout this season, the Bears’ pass defense has been up-and-down. They have given up the 15th-most passing yards and allowed over 350 passing yards in two games. Chicago’s cornerbacks, Jaylon Johnson and Malik Muhammad II, have struggled in pass coverage. Johnson has allowed the most pass yards in the league with 412, and Muhammad has given up the 25th-most with 241.
Additionally, the Bears’ defense runs a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3, which they call over 50% of the time. These coverages can allow one-on-one matchups on the outside, giving Maye and Brown the opportunity to capitalize on Chicago’s coverage issues. For the Patriots to take advantage, Maye has to deliver accurate passes downfield and Brown has to track the ball to finish the play. If they can improve their chemistry, they could exploit their opposition’s defensive weakness.
In the last two weeks, the Bears offense has struggled with containing interior defensive linemen. In their game against the Green Bay Packers, they allowed three sacks and six pressures to defensive tackles. Then, against the Atlanta Falcons, they allowed three sacks and five pressures to DTs. Given the pressure they allowed recently the Patriots’ interior pass rush has the opportunity to disrupt Caleb Williams.
New England’s IDL is led by Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, who combine for a formidable duo. While Williams has only recorded one sack and three pressures, his 17% pass-rush win rate ranks 14th among defensive tackles. Barmore adds two sacks, five pressures, and five tackles.
The Patriots also have depth along the interior defensive line with Cory Durden and Joshua Farmer. Durden hasn’t earned a sack yet but has recorded seven pressures and five tackles. Meanwhile, Farmer gathered three pressures, one sack, and seven tackles. With the depth New England has on their IDL, they need to unsettle Williams often to limit the Bears’ offense.
Though Caleb Williams has only played three games, his 9% sack rate is the sixth highest in the league, and he’s been sacked eight times this season. He suffered four sacks last week, in his return from a hamstring injury. He is known for his scrambling and sack evasion, but wasn’t productive with his legs against the Falcons, totaling only three yards on four carries.
The Bears’ struggles in interior pass protection, combined with Caleb Williams’ recent limited rushing production, could create chances for the Patriots’ defense. If they can keep Caleb Williams in the pocket, they could pressure him to prevent his improvisation. If Milton Williams, Barmore, Farmer, and Durden can consistently win in interior pass rush, they could help New England generate sacks and limit time to throw.
The Patriots vs. Bears Week 7 matchup will pit two competitive teams against each other, but accomplishing these two keys could put New England in a position to win. Maye and Brown have to show improved chemistry to lead the offense and attack Chicago’s secondary. Defensively, the interior pass rush has to disrupt Williams frequently to limit extended plays. If the team can win in both areas, they could move to 5-2 and take the lead in the AFC East.
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