Does that really say Week 1? Is the NFL seriously back? Yes, yes it is. No more late-round sleepers. No more trying to figure out what the right round to take Kyle Pitts is. No more mock drafts. It’s now time for the stress to kick in while figuring out who to start and sit each week. Seriously, there is nothing worse than not knowing who to start and playing the wrong guy, even though your gut told you to play the other one. The answer is always whichever player winds up on the bench, and never the player you decide to start.
In all seriousness, making the right lineup decisions will go a long way in achieving the main goal of fantasy football, and that is winning the championship, and of course, letting your friends hear about it.
Week one is the hardest week to figure out because the only data to go off of is from the previous season. It doesn’t mean it’s impossible to make all the right calls, but not every trend from last season will carry over. With that said, start-and-sit decisions need to be made, and that’s what you’re here for, so let’s get into it.
The New Orleans Saints offense has been a fan favorite of the fantasy community all summer. Chris Olave is one of the best wide receiver values despite his third-round price tag. Jordyn Tyson was poised to be a breakout prior to his hamstring injury, and even still, he is a premium late-round target for later in the season. Juwan Johnson has become a popular late-round tight end target. Travis Etienne is a high-upside running back target in the fourth round. There is a lot to be excited about with the Saints offensive pieces, but it’s not just because the players are talented. It’s also because of the belief people have in Tyler Shough.
Shough played better than anyone could have expected when he took over as the team’s starting quarterback in week 8 last year. The Saints went 5-5 after the quarterback change; Johnson and Shough became productive fantasy players, and Olave became a league winner.
Shough and the Saints are in a great spot to carry over the momentum they built on offense last year. The Detroit Lions ranked 19th in passing yards allowed per game last year, with an average of 218.2 yards per game. Not only were they in the bottom half of the league in pass defense, but both Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are also on the reserve/PUP list. This should make Detroit even more vulnerable to being beaten through the air than they already were.
With a favorable matchup, an indoor stadium, and an over-under set at 49.5, the second-highest of the week, Shough is in a great spot for fantasy success.
The Cleveland Browns will not be the same defense without Myles Garrett, but they are still loaded with talent, and they shouldn’t plummet as a unit. Last year, they were the 3rd-best pass defense in the league, as they allowed just 167.2 passing yards per game. Part of that was because the defense was great, but also due to the fact that opposing teams got ahead so early; they didn’t need to rely on passing the ball. There is a strong chance that is the case in week one against the Jaguars, and that is not an ideal game script for Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence is a fan favorite in fantasy this year, as plenty of people expected the offense to build off the success they had in the second half of last year. There is good reason to be excited about the entire offense, but in week one, temper expectations for Lawrence in a bad matchup with what should be a negative game script.
Is this the most confident pick? No, not at all, but the matchup is great, and one of Chuba Hubbard or Jonathon Brooks should exploit it. The Chicago Bears ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed per game last year, as they allowed an average of 131 yards per game. Despite being one of the league’s worst run defenses, the Bears didn’t do anything to address it, making it a premier matchup for running backs yet again.
The expectation is that Brooks and Hubbard will be in a 50/50 split, with the hot hand leading the way, but no one knows for sure until they step on the field. Because of that, it may be hard to just toss them into lineups, but the matchup is great, and if there is a time to experiment with the lineup, it is week one. So fire up those Panthers running backs, and expect one of them, or maybe both of them, to produce in a plus matchup.
No one is debating whether or not to play Javonte Williams; that isn’t why he is on this list. He is here because he has a phenomenal matchup and has a chance to be a top-five running back in week one. The New York Giants were the 31st-best run defense in the league last year. The only team worse was the Cincinnati Bengals, and everyone knows how bad they were. What did the Giants do to try to fix their defense that allowed 145 rushing yards per game? Well, they traded their star defensive tackle, Dexter Lawrence, to the Bengals. Just seems like an odd process, but it makes the Giants an even better matchup on paper.
Williams will be in everyone’s lineup, but I wanted to highlight his elite matchup in week one.
This is just a simple call. Quinshon Judkins looked like a difference-making running back last year. Unfortunately, it is hard to see him making a big difference for fantasy football managers in this matchup. The Jacksonville Jaguars had the league’s best run defense last year, allowing just 85.2 rushing yards per game. Just a bad matchup for all backs, but especially ones in a bad offensive situation.
The Cleveland Browns have one of the league’s worst situations at quarterback, and one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Both of those are not exactly ingredients in a recipe for success. On top of the bad situation, Judkins was not used as a pass catcher last year, and in a game where the Browns will likely be trailing, he may lose work to Dylan Samspon.
Judkins is just in a bad situation, and that won’t change regardless of the matchup, but against the best run defense in the league, he should be benched for any other viable option.
Are the Arizona Cardinals a solid matchup for wide receivers? Yes, they are, as they gave up the 17th most fantasy points to wide receivers last year, but that doesn’t factor into this pick. What does factor into this pick is the start that Quentin Johnston had last season, before all the injuries that the Los Angeles Chargers suffered.
Johnston started the season on a heater, catching 22 passes for 337 yards and 4 touchdowns. On top of that, he caught a pass of at least 30 yards in every single game. Johnston was one of the most productive receivers throughout the first four weeks of the season, but that faded as the Chargers entire offensive line dealt with serious injuries. Justin Herbert had less time to stand in the pocket and air the ball out, therefore taking away a lot of fantasy value from Johnston. Now, with both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater back healthy, and Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, Johnston should thrive, and he should get off to a hot start.
This is by far the boldest pick of the bunch, but Dontayvion Wicks is in a prime position to get off to a strong start. The Washington Commanders allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to wide receivers last year, and they don’t project to be much better in the secondary.
Wicks has received nothing but praise all offseason, and he is set to start as the starting wide receiver opposite DeVonta Smith. The fantasy football community wants Makai Lemon to be a factor right away, but after being injured for most of camp, he is likely to get off to a slow start. That puts Wicks, a talented receiver who hasn’t had an opportunity to be a full-time starter yet, as the next man up, and he could surprise in week one.
The Commanders were one of the best matchups for wide receivers last year, but the Philadelphia Eagles were not. They were a bottom-three matchup for the position last year, and they should be one of the league’s best defenses yet again. It is very possible that fantasy football managers don’t have a viable replacement for Terry McLaurin, but they should temper their expectations. On top of the bad positional matchup, all the reports out of camp about the Commanders offensive line have been bad. That is not a good sign either, and Jayden Daniels could be in for a long day against a strong pass rush.
The Eagles are just a bad matchup for all players, but there is a chance this game gets very ugly. Try to fade McLaurin if possible, given the situation.
Michael Wilson was a league winner last year, and there is no other way to put it. He was exceptional once Jacoby Brissett took over, but the truth is, he was at his best when Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t play. Wilson’s three best games all came with Brissett, and without Harrison. He looked like one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in those games, as he averaged 12 catches for 148 yards across those games, but he was by himself.
Now, with a healthy Harrison, Wilson should return to his role as the secondary wide receiver, therefore limiting his ceiling. Of course, he could turn out to be the top option between the two, but that was not the case last year. In a bad matchup with the Chargers, leaving Wilson on the bench isn’t the worst idea while managers wait to see how the roles play out.
After spending four years as a backup in Baltimore, Isiah Likely followed John Harbaugh to the New York Giants to be the team’s starting tight end. In his first game as a Giant, he gets to play under the lights against a division rival with a suspect defense, and that is perfect.
Likely is poised to be a big-time target for Jaxson Dart, and with Malik Nabers still recovering from his injury, he could be relied on in a big way on Sunday Night. The Dallas Cowboys were actually a relatively bad matchup for tight ends last year, but Likely will spend plenty of time in the slot. He will be needed if the Giants want to put up points, and he is in a position to succeed.
This one is very simple. The only team that was a worse matchup for tight ends than the Buffalo Bills last year was the Eagles. Buffalo shut down the position. They are changing up their defensive philosophy, so that could open things up, but until proven otherwise, it is best to avoid the Bills matchup. There probably aren’t many people relying on Dalton Schultz, but some people will be, and they should look to pivot. He will be a solid option for most of the year, but not in this matchup.
Week one is finally here, so please sit back, relax if you can, and enjoy it. This isn’t the time to stress about lineups or start-and-sit decisions, as that will come later in the season. The season always goes faster than anyone expects, so take the season one week at a time and just enjoy it.
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