Fantasy Football playoffs can be extremely stressful, especially if you’ve made it this far. It’s hard enough to make it to Week 16, but now the home stretch is here. Don’t make a mistake when you’re so close to victory.
(Stats are PPR from FantasyPros)
C.J. Stroud hasn’t exactly been lighting up the league this season, but he’s looked more like himself in recent weeks. He’s thrown for over 200 yards in each of his last three games, and four touchdowns to one interception.
Stroud is facing a Las Vegas Raiders defense that’s among the league’s worst. They allowed Jalen Hurts his best game since Week 12, where he threw for 240 yards and four touchdowns.
The Raiders are the NFL’s punching bag at the moment, and it seems anyone can put up points against them.
Just two short months ago, chants of “MVP” were raining down on Baker Mayfield. Now, he finds himself in a massive slump. He hasn’t exceeded 21 fantasy points since Week 10, and has only passed 15 points twice since then.
Mayfield is facing the Carolina Panthers’ defense. While they’re not exactly lethal, they’re unpredictable. Matthew Stafford struggled against them three weeks ago, scoring only 13.2 points. Mayfield’s struggles, plus a tough division matchup, might equal a bad fantasy day.
The reason I’m listing both Vikings’ running backs here has less to do with their success and more to do with their matchup. Neither of these rushers has exceeded 10 fantasy points since Week 11.
The New York Giants’ run defense ranks 31st in yards allowed per game (153.6). They allowed Jacory Croskey-Merritt to score more than 10 points for the first time since Week 5. They have a historically poor run defense in DVOA and EPA per play. Start any running back that faces them.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. had his best game of 2025 last week against the Washington Commanders. He rushed for 70 yards and one touchdown, while catching three passes for 27 yards and another score.
Tracy has struggled through most of this season following his shoulder injury in Week 3. It’s tempting to start him after last week, but chasing those points typically ends badly.
The Dallas Cowboys’ defense is not all that different from the Giants. They rank dead last in pass yards allowed per game (254.8) and are tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for last in touchdown passes allowed (31).
Ladd McConkey and Justin Herbert have been missing a connection over the past two weeks. With Houston and Denver on the horizon, this is the last bad defense they’ll play before the playoffs. This is the perfect game to reignite a fire.
Last week, I listed Terry McLaurin as a start, and it paid off. He caught three passes for 69 yards and a touchdown against a terrible Giants defense. The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense ranks sixth in the NFL in points allowed per game (19.4).
The Eagles have allowed 203 pass yards over their last two games, holding the Raiders to just 64. Marcus Mariota can’t keep up with them, and McLaurin’s production will dip as a result.
Harold Fannin Jr. should be an every-week starter by this point in the season. He ranks fifth in receiving yards among tight ends (667), second in targets (99), and sixth in receptions (66).
Fannin faces a tough challenge in the Buffalo Bills this week, but they also allowed 20.6 fantasy points to Mike Gesicki two weeks ago. This is a big game for Shedeur Sanders, and he’ll likely struggle. Expect him to turn to his favorite target.
Travis Kelce hasn’t been dominant, but he’s had a decent year. The Chiefs’ season is effectively over following their elimination from playoff contention. Injury was added to insult when Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL.
It’s hard to tell what the Chiefs’ offense looks like without Mahomes. He’s been healthy, or played through injury, almost his entire career. Granted, they face the Tennessee Titans this week, but Kelce having a big game right now seems unlikely.
Most fantasy leagues are winding down, with only two weeks left to go. If you’ve found yourself in the chase, don’t make bad decisions. If you’re in the consolation bracket, you may as well play hard for the moral victory.
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