Many fans feel that the American League MVP race between Yankees captain Aaron Judge and Mariners slugging catcher Cal Raleigh is one of the most compelling in some time, and they’re fully justified in sharing that sentiment. Stadium Rant has been covering the race for the coveted hardware all season long.
After all, Raleigh is on pace to hit 61 home runs, and he’s already set the single-season record for the most home runs by a catcher, with 50.
Affectionately nicknamed “Big Dumper”, Raleigh deserves all of the praise he’s been receiving, and more. He, however, is not the front-runner for the American League MVP in 2025; that designation still belongs to two-time recipient Aaron Judge, who is having an even better season.
There’s been a debate since time immemorial about what “Most Valuable Player” really means. In fact, the origins of this award date back to 1911, when it was called the Chalmers Award. The current iteration of the honor was established in 1931, and it is awarded by the Baseball Writers Association of America, or BBWAA, for the sake of brevity.
History lessons aside, the concept of value is one of the most enduring debates in all of sports. Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, is a statistic that sabermetricians and fans of analytics are infatuated with, primarily because it helps to reduce a player to a single number. Going off of that, Aaron Judge’s 7.9 WAR is higher than Raleigh’s 7.2. But surely such a captivating campaign cannot be brought down to a single number, yes?
Examining the numbers comes with more scrutiny than just looking at one single stat. Here’s a closer look at how they stack up for both candidates.
Home runs and RBI aside, Judge has been considerably better than Raleigh in 2025, and the numbers prove it. For those who remain unconvinced, also consider that Judge’s 196 wRC+ (100 is league average, so Judge is generating offense 96 percent better than the league average player) is 40 percentage points higher than Raleigh’s 156 wRC+.
Batting average is not nearly as sacrosanct as it was years ago, but it still matters. Raleigh’s .240 mark would be the lowest average ever for an MVP winner; Shohei Ohtani’s .257 average in 2021 is the current such record for an MVP recipient as a batter. Judge’s .324 average is the best in Major League Baseball, and it’s a career high for him.
Numbers aren’t the only thing that decides MVP winners. Factors such as health, positional demands, and popularity also matter.
Aaron Judge is the face of professional baseball, and his personal brand is obviously bolstered by his status as Yankees captain. He has had a health issue of his own this year as well. Judge, who tied Yogi Berra for fifth all-time in home runs in franchise history on Sunday, has not played the outfield since sustaining a right flexor strain back on July 22nd.
On the other hand, Cal Raleigh plays the most grueling position in the game as a catcher. His pitch framing and ability to throw out baserunners are both among the best in the game. Spectators and commentators alike favor a player’s results at the plate, but defensive prowess does play a role.
The clear MVP favorite is Aaron Judge. This is not an affront towards Cal Raleigh; the season he’s having would catapult him to the top MVP contender in most other years.
The fact of the matter is that he’s facing Judge, who is having another historic season, and has had the best four-year stretch of any hitter the game has ever seen.
Raleigh gets props for playing a significantly more laborious position and having the best slugging season a catcher has ever had. At the end of the day, however, Judge has been much better this year from both an empirical and eye-test standpoint. That is why the MVP race is not as close as fans think it is.
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