The Dallas Stars have been one of the more intriguing teams to watch over the past three weeks. They are 7-1-2 over in their last ten games and have been slowly closing in on the Winnipeg Jets for the number one seed in the Western Conference. From afar, it might seem like Dallas has been amazing, and is finding the form needed for a deep playoff run. It doesn’t take much digging to figure out that that may not be the case. In reality, the Stars have struggled immensely, and have been a product of excellent goaltending, as well as playing below-average teams.
Over the last three weeks, there has been an apparent trend that has followed the Stars. Dallas has been outshot in their last eleven games. The difference in shots per game isn’t even necessarily close either, as most teams have had an average of ten or more shots than the Stars. This is worrying for two reasons. First, it is becoming increasingly obvious that Miro Heiskanen is the lifeblood of the defense. When he’s on the ice versus when he’s not is painfully obvious, and opposing teams know it. They’ve taken advantage of the right defensive side since he’s been sidelined.
The second, and perhaps less obvious reason, is that the low number of shots Dallas is putting on the net isn’t sustainable hockey. This may be overshadowed due to pucks still getting to the back of the net, but come playoffs, defenses and goalies will tighten up. Hence, allowing less and less easy goals on a lesser shot volume.
The lack of high shot volume could be due to a few differing factors. One, goes back to the defense, as the team is visibly struggling to break out of their zone, and getting rushes going. Both Heiskanen and Nils Lundkvist (who had a season-ending shoulder injury) were great puck movers in the defensive zone, which allowed the offense to generate more rushes. Another potential reason for the lack of shots could come down to lines not meshing.
The first line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Mikko Rantanen has started generating chemistry, and tons of points, but the other lines haven’t been as successful. Since March, the second and third lines have struggled with consistency. Specifically, the third line, where head coach Peter DeBoer is trying to find the best fit on the right side of Wyatt Johnston. Both Evgenii Dadonov and Mavrik Bourque have played serious minutes on that line, with Bourque looking like a better fit. Despite that, DeBoer seems adamant about keeping Dadonov on the third line.
Over their last ten games, Dallas leads the league in PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage). A high PDO is often viewed as an indicator of how lucky a team has been. The average is 100.00, while the Stars currently sit at 108.75 in their last ten games. Breaking it down, it makes sense why they’ve looked so lucky over this stretch of games. Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith have bailed the team out on numerous occasions, and the offense has scored a ton of goals on a relatively low amount of shots.
Over their last ten games, the Stars netminders have a 2.76 save percentage above expected on unblocked shots, good for second in the league. This means that on shots that are unblocked, the goalies are saving way more than they should (in theory). In short, Oettinger and DeSmith have been playing irregularly good hockey, and at some point, they will likely start to cool off.
While Dallas’s premier first line has been finding their game recently, the same can’t be said about the rest of the top nine. The third line consisting of captain Jamie Benn, Johnston, and most commonly Dadonov, has struggled mightily to create offense. They, however, have at least not been as bad as the second line of: Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene, and Mikael Granlund. They have been a defensive black hole, as they have 15.6 expected goals against. Sure, part of it can be chalked up to missing key defensive guys, but for a line that has also struggled to find offense at the 5-on-5 level, it’s still concerning.
Everyone knows that the Stars are missing Heiskanen badly, but a more underrated return will be Tyler Seguin. When he was on the ice with his line of Duchene and Marchment, they were near unstoppable. In 19 games, Seguin had 20 points, and that line had an expected goals percentage of 58.9%, the most of any Dallas line this season. He is rumored to be returning right before the end of the regular season, and if the hope is he will slide right back into form with his linemates.
After a seven-game winning streak, that involved a lot of luck, as well as playing bad teams, the Star’s poor play came crashing down on themselves. They’ve blown three third-period leads in a row en route to a 0-1-2 record, including a historic loss to the Vancouver Canucks. They were outshot in all three of the games, and two of them were lost on bad penalties in overtime. With maybe the most important game of the regular season against the Jets quickly approaching, the Stars need to find a way to play a complete 60 minutes of hockey.
Hopefully, this past week has been a wake-up call for Dallas. A playoff-like game against the Jets is right around the corner, with major seeding implications on the line. A loss would mean staring down a team that might just be getting their captain back in the Colorado Avalanche. A win still might not even mean anything due to their poor play over the weekend. Despite all that, the Stars need to improve if they want any hopes of hoisting the Stanley Cup.
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