A week ago, Spain was my pick to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Today, France remains No. 1, Lionel Messi’s Argentina is surging, Germany’s attack looks terrifying, and England just delivered one of the best performances of the tournament.
Meanwhile, Spain, Brazil and Portugal all dropped points in their opening matches.
One match doesn’t define a World Cup contender, but Matchday 1 definitely changed the conversation.
Here are my updated power rankings after the first round of group-stage matches.
Portugal hangs onto a spot in the rankings despite a disappointing 1-1 draw against DR Congo.
The talent level remains undeniable, but the opening result prevented Portugal from climbing higher. Cristiano Ronaldo and company still possess enough quality to make a deep run, but Matchday 2 suddenly feels much more important.
Mexico handled business exactly the way a contender should.
A 2-0 victory over South Africa wasn’t flashy, but it immediately placed El Tri in a strong position within Group A. Mexico did what several higher-ranked teams failed to do: take care of business.
The host nation delivered one of the strongest performances of Matchday 1.
The United States defeated Paraguay 4-1 behind two goals from Folarin Balogun and immediately established itself as a legitimate threat in Group D. The Americans looked confident, aggressive and organized throughout the match.
Norway may no longer qualify as a dark horse.
A convincing 4-1 victory over Iraq showcased the attacking quality led by Erling Haaland, who scored twice. Norway’s stock rose more than almost any team in the tournament.
Brazil drops slightly after a 1-1 draw against Morocco.
The result wasn’t disastrous, but it wasn’t the statement many expected from one of the tournament favorites. The talent remains championship-caliber, yet several contenders made stronger opening impressions.
Spain entered the tournament as my pick to win it all.
That prediction becomes harder to defend after a scoreless draw against Cabo Verde. The talent remains elite and the ceiling remains incredibly high, but title favorites are expected to win matches like that.
Spain stays in the top five, but the margin for error is shrinking.
England made one of the biggest statements of Matchday 1.
The Three Lions defeated Croatia 4-2 behind two goals from Harry Kane and looked dangerous every time they moved forward. Beating a respected European opponent carries far more weight than overwhelming an underdog.
England looks like a genuine title contender.
No team made a louder statement than Germany.
A 7-1 victory over Curaçao was the most dominant result of the tournament so far. Kai Havertz scored twice while Joshua Kimmich and Deniz Undav each recorded two assists. Germany’s attack overwhelmed its opponent from start to finish.
The level of competition matters, but seven goals are seven goals.
The defending champions looked every bit the part.
Argentina cruised past Algeria 3-0 behind a Lionel Messi hat trick and reminded everyone why they remain one of the favorites to repeat. Messi currently leads the Golden Boot race and appears determined to make another deep World Cup run.
If Messi continues playing at this level, Argentina will be incredibly difficult to eliminate.
France remains the team to beat.
A 3-1 victory over Senegal may not have generated the same headlines as Germany’s seven goals or Messi’s hat trick, but it was arguably the most complete performance by any favorite. Kylian Mbappé scored twice, the attack looked dangerous throughout the match, and France once again showcased its incredible depth.
For now, the road to the trophy still runs through France.
Colombia’s 3-1 victory over Uzbekistan nearly earned a spot in the rankings, while Sweden’s 5-1 win over Tunisia and Morocco’s draw against Brazil deserve recognition. Austria also impressed in a 3-1 victory over Jordan.
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The first match of a World Cup rarely tells the entire story, but it often reveals which teams are ready for the moment.
France remains the standard. Argentina received a vintage performance from Messi. Germany’s attack looks terrifying. England appears capable of making a deep run.
Spain, Brazil and Portugal remain contenders, but all three now face far more questions than they did a week ago.
The race for the 2026 World Cup trophy is only beginning, but the hierarchy is already starting to take shape.
WORLD CUP MATCH GUIDES :
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