The 2026 Houston Texans are set up for success. They are bringing back arguably the league’s best defense and have the seventh-easiest schedule, according to ESPN. One thing, however, holds them back from being seen as a clear favorite.
The play of CJ Stroud the last couple of years has been concerning. After a tremendous rookie year where he threw for 23 touchdowns to just five interceptions with a 100.8 passer rating, he hasn’t looked the same. In year two, he had 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions with an 87.0 rating.
At the time, that was not alarming. Quarterbacks tend to regress in their second years because defenses have more film on them and have made major adjustments. The good quarterbacks, though, find a way to make adjustments of their own and have a good year three.
That was not the case with Stroud. The quarterback was equally as bad in his third year, if not worse. Stroud finished with 19 touchdowns to just eight interceptions with a 92.9 rating. The stats themselves don’t look alarming, but the way he finished the season was.
The 2026 postseason was a brutal stretch for the former Ohio State Buckeye. In the Wild Card round against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Stroud had five fumbles and lost two of them, along with an interception. The Texans ended up winning 30-6 thanks to the defense scoring twice in the fourth quarter.
The next game against the New England Patriots in the divisional round was a low point. He tossed four first- half interceptions and logged a passer rating of 28.0. The most disappointing aspect was that the Texans were competitive.
The defense once again was the leading force as that unit recovered two fumbles and had an interception. The Patriots were leading 21-16 entering the fourth quarter. Stroud, though, could give no final push to the offense, and Houston ended up losing 28-16. It’s rare to say that a quarterback cost a team the game because of how team-oriented the NFL is, but his performance in that game was as close as one could get to saying that.
Now, year four becomes a do-or-die year for Stroud. The good news is that he gets his best weapon back in Tank Dell. The star wideout missed all of the 2025 season because of a gruesome leg injury suffered in December 2024.
In 19 career games with Dell and his other weapon, Nico Collins, Stroud has a 97.3 passer rating with 5146 yards and a 29:11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is set to have both of them again in 2026. This, along with the light schedule, gives him every opportunity to be great in 2026, and if he isn’t, the team will have to consider other prospects at that position.
In another article of mine, I go into much deeper detail on Stroud’s decline. That can be checked right here. It shows how unprecedented his regression from year one to year three has been.
There’s been nothing like it in the NFL before. Stroud went from being potentially the next big quarterback to fighting for his career in Houston just a few years later. What makes the pressure even worse is how good the team around him is.
The 2026 Texans will likely be a phenomenal defense once again. They also have newly acquired David Montgomery from the Detroit Lions and a nice set of receivers. Outside of the questionable offensive line, this team has it all.
It’s up to Stroud to determine whether the 2026 Texans end their season in the divisional round like they always do, or if they can take that next step.
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