Fantasy managers beware: the 2026 fantasy football busts are here. A fantasy football bust isn’t necessarily a bad NFL player. It’s a player whose current ADP is too expensive relative to his projected fantasy production.
It’s almost kickoff time for managers and fantasy managers alike. The regular season is scheduled to kick off on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, at 8:20 pm Eastern, and with it comes the endless fantasy drafts. This marks the first time the NFL has started on a Wednesday night in 14 years, when the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants rescheduled for a political event. On the slate, the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks are hosting the AFC Champion New England Patriots from Lumen Field.
Fantasy football bust risk based on current ADP, recent production, injury concerns, and projected opportunity.
Injury concerns and a high draft cost create significant risk.
His elite draft cost leaves little room for regression after his explosive 2025 start.
Limited recent availability and a lofty ADP make him a risky pick.
Added receiving competition could limit his target and touchdown upside.
Sleeper has just four quarterbacks with a better ADP than Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels: Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. In truth, later options like Jalen Hurts, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams have a higher ceiling.
Daniels played in only seven games last season due to injuries, and the variety of injuries across different parts of his body adds another layer of concern. Injuries in 2025 included a left elbow dislocation in December, a right hamstring strain in October, and a left knee strain in September. That said, it’s a big ask to rebound into a top-five fantasy QB. Furthermore, with top options including the returning Terry McLaurin and the addition of Stefon Diggs on a one-year, $12 million deal, the ceiling feels predictable.
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor could be a reliable, steady-floor guy, but managers are drafting him in the first five backs off the board. Taylor had such a historic hot streak to begin the 2025 season that it hides how much his fantasy value fell off by the end. He scored below his projected points in the final seven games of the year, as the Colts fell out of playoff relevance. He was a top-five RB in just five weeks all year, and his value at the end of the season was carried by a few early games that’ll be challenging to replicate.
The wide receivers being drafted behind Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice are astounding, including the New Orleans Saints’ Chris Olave, Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins, and Baltimore Ravens’ Zay Flowers. Rice has played in just 12 games over the last two seasons and has never finished a year better than WR27. Additionally, the Chiefs are better known for their defensive prowess and clutch plays than for offensive volume. Fantasy managers can sell the hype to the opposition while buying someone else at a better value later in the draft.
Colts tight end Tyler Warren was another beneficiary of the team’s scorching start last season. His fantasy value, however, faces a steep test ahead. In standard scoring leagues, Warren failed to crack double-digit points after Week Seven in 2025, and did so just once from there in point-per-reception leagues. Moreover, the team went out in free agency for additional depth in the receiver room, signing Keenan Allen to a one-year, $8.32 million deal. His ADP makes him less appealing when managers can wait on tight ends like Tucker Kraft, Kyle Pitts, or Travis Kelce.
What’s your take? Post it in our free sports community at stadiumrant.app, or download Stadium Rant on the App Store.
Almost anyone on the Colts is a risky play, while Rice and Daniels remain with overvalued ADPs, largely based on hype. Other 2026 fantasy football busts include Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving and New York Giants running back Cam Skattebo.
Fresh Takes Sports Live Tuesdays 8:15 PM ET Here | Stadium Rant Articles by Howe Fresh | The Real Fresh Channel X Here
If you love sports, download Stadium Rant from the Apple App Store and join one of the fastest-growing social sports communities. Be sure to follow us on socials too — you can find all our profiles on our Linktree.
