The AFC West has the potential to be the best division in the conference. With the return of Patrick Mahomes, it’s a real possibility that three teams make the postseason. Who will get first place?
The Las Vegas Raiders will finish last in the AFC West. They should be much improved from a season ago, when they went 3-14. The team drafted Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, who hopefully solves their issues at that position since Derek Carr’s departure. With Klint Kubiak now as the offensive coordinator, they have a better fit to develop a rookie quarterback. Ashton Jeanty is in his second year, and he could certainly make a leap.
Las Vegas also hired former Seattle Seahawks Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak. He was able to get the most out of Sam Darnold, so he seems to be a fit candidate to steer a rookie QB. Ashton Jeanty is in his second year, and he could certainly make a leap.
The Raiders certainly can win seven games and trend in the right direction. They, however, are still a few years away from being playoff contenders.
This was the toughest decision to make, but the Kansas City Chiefs will finish third in the West. Out of three contenders in this division, they have the most question marks. First and foremost is Patrick Mahomes’s health.
The 10th-year quarterback out of Texas Tech University will be returning from an ACL injury. If Mahomes is able to go in Week One, it will be exactly nine months since the injury incident. How sharp will he be to start the season?
In Kansas City’s first eight games, they play the Denver Broncos twice, the Seattle Seahawks, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Houston Texans. Teams that know how to get after the quarterback. Defensively, they have lost Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Josh Williams, Bryan Cook, Charles Omenihu, and Leo Chenal.
It will be an adjustment period for both sides of the ball.
The team to finish second in the West is the Los Angeles Chargers. They suffered a horrible injury to their offensive line in 2025. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater were both out for the season with injury and will be back.
When Justin Herbert has both of them on the field, his average expected points added(EPA) is +0.31, which would be third in the NFL. Without them, it drops to -0.1, which ranks in the bottom fourth. His passer rating also dips to mid to low 90s.
It’s clear that Alt and Slater matter. In addition to their return, the Chargers made a massive upgrade in the coaching staff. They hired Mike McDaniel as OC. He was able to get the best out of Tua Tagovailoa, and people are hopeful he’ll take Herbert to a whole new level.
The only question is how the defense will perform with Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter’s departure. With him, they were ranked in the top five in points per game allowed in 2024 and 2025.
The team that will finish with the best record in the AFC West will be the Broncos. This team finished with the best record in the conference with 14-3 and made it to the championship team. Their biggest weaknesses were an explosive run game and a game-changer at wide receiver.
Denver picked up Jaylen Waddle to fill that void. Moving Courtland to the second spot allows him to take advantage of lesser corners. The run should also be better with the return of JK Dobbins. Despite losing John Franklin-Myers and PJ Locke, the defense will always be a force as they finished first in sacks in 2024 and 2025.
The only concerns are how Bo Nix will look coming off the brutal ankle injury, and can Dobbins stay healthy for a full year? Out of all the teams in the West, though, they have the most continuity.
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These are my AFC West predictions for the 2026 season. It’s still very early, so these could change.
The results reflect no change from the previous year. Denver finished on top, followed by Los Angeles. Kansas City and Vegas finished third and fourth, respectively.
This year, though, I expect three teams to make it out of the division into the postseason. The Chiefs may end up in third place, but could end up with 10-11 wins.
The Raiders may be last, but they can win 7-8 games. Rookie quarterbacks in recent years have found team success, with the latest examples being Nix and Jayden Daniels for the Washington Commanders.
Do you agree with the predictions?
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