Since MVP talks began in the 2024-25 season, two players have knocked each other off for the number one spot. None other than Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continued to put on a show night in and night out. The only issue? Now that the season has concluded, one player may not win the MVP despite having one of the greatest seasons in NBA history.
The OKC point guard put on a scoring clinic the entire season, which was also extremely efficient. Gilgeous-Alexander nearly eclipsed the elusive 50/40/90 club, shooting 51.9% from the field, 37.5% from three, and 89.8% from the free throw line. He accomplished this while leading the league in scoring, averaging 32.7 points per game.
To put this in perspective, the only other player in NBA history to average a 50/40/90 shooting split and win the scoring title was Steph Curry in the 2015-16 season. Adding to this historic season, Curry also won the first-ever unanimous MVP that year. This is already a convincing argument for SGA to win the award this year.
Leading the Thunder to the best record in the West and to be only the seventh team to win 68 games or more adds to the young guard’s case. Making matters more impressive, SGA and OKC finished the season 16 games ahead of the next-best team in the West. They also set the NBA record for largest point differential per game in a season at 12.87.
With Gilgeous-Alexander spearheading one of the best teams in NBA history, the argument for him as MVP may seem a no-brainer. After all, he led the league in scoring while on this historic run. Dominant in every sense of the word. In any other season, this would be a runaway victory for SGA as MVP, but one man complicates things: Nikola Jokic.
After laying out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s accomplishments, it would seem ludicrous if someone else were to make a more convincing case. You would be right, because the 2024-25 season that Jokic had was indeed ludicrous. The man was breaking records left and right.
For starters, Nikola Jokic became the first center in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season with 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists. He was also just the third player ever to do so behind Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook.
Making more history, Jokic also became the first player to finish top three in four major statistical categories. He finished third in points, third in rebounding, second in assists, and second in steals. To emphasize the gravity of this achievement, no other player in NBA history has finished top ten in even three categories.
All season long, Jokic dropped stat lines looking like they came straight out of a video game. The most notable being 61/10/10 and 31/21/22, both of which are NBA records. 61 points are the most scored while tallying a triple-double, and 31 points are the most while also stacking 20 rebounds and 20 assists.
James Harden (60/11/10) and Luka Doncic (60/21/10) have both had 60-point triple-doubles, scoring exactly 60, so Jokic narrowly takes the cake. There have also been two other 20/20/20 games, one by Russell Westbrook (20/20/21) and one by Wilt Chamberlain (22/25/21). The Joker is truly in a league of his own.
Team-wise, the Nuggets’ center has propelled an otherwise mediocre team to the fourth seed in the playoffs. The West is notorious for being the tougher of the two conferences, and it lived up to that expectation this year. Seeds three through eight were separated by only two games or fewer. All the more reason Jokic’s value cannot be understated in the Nuggets winning 50 games and securing the four-seed.
Value can be measured in two ways, objectively and subjectively. Objectively speaking, stats such as points and rebounds can measure a player or a team’s value. The issue is that statistics sometimes fail to tell the whole story. That is where subjective value comes into play. While this can also complicate things, it is beneficial to consider hypothetical scenarios.
For instance, if Jokic and SGA were to swap teams, how different would the teams performances look? Another scenario to consider: if both players were given identical teams to play on, accounting for the position they play, who would be able to lead their team to a better season? These hypotheticals can help conceptualize how much value a player contributes without a number attached.
On the objective side of things, the main stat categories and their inherent value have been discussed. Diving deeper, advanced statistics can offer a better picture of value offered. Stats like true shooting percentage (TS%), value over replacement player (VORP), and box plus minus (BPM) aim to measure efficiency and a players overall contribution.
Regardless of how value is broken down, the whole picture should be taken into consideration. No one stat, or achievement, should definitively put one player over the other in terms of value. The MVP award has largely been given to the best player on the best team, but there is so much more to consider. So, how do Jokic and SGA size up overall?
On the offensive side of the ball, SGA takes the obvious lead in scoring. Jokic, however, is the more efficient scorer while also holding a commanding lead in assists and offensive rebounds. The Nuggets center also has a higher offensive plus/minus and overall BPM. This reflects the value that Jokic provides outside of scoring.
Heading to the other end of the floor, it may seem that SGA is the obvious choice defensively. When taking all aspects of defense into consideration, the numbers tell a different story.
The Thunder point guard blocks more shots, is more versatile, and is a better rated rim protector than Jokic. Admittedly, it is impressive that a guard is outdoing a center at his own game. To this tune, Jokic does have a slight edge in steals over SGA.
Looking at the less attractive defensive stats, Jokic begins to shine through. He dominates the rebounding game defensively and has a high rate of deflections. All things considered, Nikola Jokic holds a defensive BPM 0.5 points higher than Gilgeous-Alexander.
The last piece to the equation is inspecting wins. This is where subjectivity comes into play. There is no denying the dominant season that SGA has led the Thunder on. If we consider only the numbers, he is the clear winner. In terms of value, however, is it more valuable for a player to make a good OKC team great or a mediocre Denver team a playoff threat?
Another angle to consider: if you take SGA off the Thunder, is there another player who could have the same impact? Vice versa for Jokic. The VORP leans in Jokic’s favor. Simply put, there are players that can do, and have done, what SGA accomplished. The same cannot be said for Jokic. He is truly having a one-of-a-kind season, deserving of the Most Valuable Player award.
Do not get me wrong, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander deserves the recognition and praise he is getting for the incredible season he had. It is more worthy of the scoring title, and not the MVP award, however. If Nikola Jokic were not in the picture, SGA by all means would be the top choice for MVP. Unfortunately for him, Jokic is having one of the best seasons in NBA history, statistical and otherwise. If Jokic does not win MVP, it will be one of the biggest snubs for MVP in the history of the NBA.
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